The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Laboratory Corp. Of America Hl (LH); Micron Technology Inc. (MU); Oracle Corp. (ORCL); Invesco Ltd (IVZ) and the Focus List deletions are Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD); American Express Co. (AXP); Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD); Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH).

No matter how you slice the price action from the last two quarters or past five months, the market may well have more upside ahead -- possibly in double digits. This is, of course, not a certainty, as there is always the possibility that something odd (say a pandemic) comes out of left field. But it is not rare for the S&P 500 (SPX) to be up for two consecutive quarters (at least during certain market periods), nor is it that uncommon for the index to be up for five straight months. Let's just hope that the solar eclipse next week is the only "odd" event we have for the rest of the year.

Depending on today's close, the three major indices might achieve 16 positive weeks out of 18 on their northern glide path. So far, this surely is a "leap" year. The Nasdaq finally made an all-time high (ATH), jumping above the last ATH from November 19, 2021. Yes, that took a long time (about 27.5 months). But after the 2000 high, it took the index more than 15 years to recover -- so just a couple years isn't so bad. Is this a significant breakout? As we have said, great breakouts to ATHs occur after multi-year bases, not after vicious rallies.

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Our stock/bond asset-allocation model, which we call the Stock Bond Barometer, is now indicating that stocks are the asset class offering the most value at the current market juncture. But not by much. The model takes into account current levels and forecasts of short-term and long-term government and corporate fixed-income yields, inflation, stock prices, GDP, and corporate earnings, among other factors. The output is expressed in terms of standard deviations to the mean, or sigma. The mean reading, going back to 1960, is a modest premium for stocks, of 0.16 sigma, with a standard deviation of 0.98. The current valuation level is a 0.04 sigma discount for stocks, which is now below fair value and down sharply from a 0.85 sigma premium at the end of 3Q. Other valuation measures also show reasonable multiples for stocks. The current forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is approximately 18, which is within the normal range of 10-21 and down from 23 at the end of 2021. The current S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.4%, while below the historical average of 2.9%, is up from an ultralow 1.2% also in 2021. And that current S&P 500 dividend yield is 35% of the 10-year Treasury yield, compared to the long-run average of 39% and the all-time low of 18% during 1999. We expect the results from our stock-bond valuation model to continue to improve, as interest rates head lower in 2024 and EPS growth picks up. Based in part on the output from our Stock Bond Barometer, our recommended asset allocation model for moderate accounts is 70% growth assets, including 68% equities and 2% alternatives; and 30% fixed income, with a focus on core and opportunistic segments of the bond market. On duration, we recommend focusing on the short end of the curve.

U.S. stocks were lower on Wednesday morning ahead of the Fed's rate decision later this afternoon. ADP's latest employment report shows 107,000 jobs were added in January, down from 164,000 in December and lower than expected. Shares of Paramount Global are up on news that billionaire Byron Allen has made a $14.3 billion takeover offer for Paramount Global. Meanwhile, Microsoft, Advanced Micro Devices and Alphabet are all trending lower after reporting fourth-quarter results. The S&P 500 is down 0.9%, the Dow 0.1%, the Nasdaq lost 1.5% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.5%. Crude oil was down 2%, while gold rose $17.50 to $2068 per ounce.

With the Santa Claus rally having fallen flat, attention turns to the first five trading sessions of January. And so far, three out of four weren't good. After that, the performance of stocks in all of January will be examined as key to 2024's performance.

Perspective is very important when analyzing the stock market. We know that a few stocks have accounted for most of the 21% year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 (SPX). And after another nice day on Tuesday, the index is only 3.2% from its January 3, 2022, all-time closing high (ATH) of 4,796.56. That's a long comeback from the 2022 bear market (-25%).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

High mortgage rates are weighing on builders' confidence, but there are reasons to be optimistic. The National Association of Home Builders said that builder sentiment was down for a fourth consecutive month in November, but housing conditions may improve in the coming months helped by a recent decline in Treasury rates. The NAHB is forecasting a 5% increase in single-family starts in 2024 as "financial conditions ease with improving inflation data in the months ahead." D.R. Horton, the largest U.S. builder, could be a beneficiary. The company's fiscal 4Q orders jumped 39% even with high mortgage rates. On the company's November 7 earnings call, Chairman Donald Horton offered the following: "The supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points remains limited and demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable." DHI offered incentives to keep prices affordable and plans to continue them in 2024. The company's board showed its confidence by raising the full-year dividend by 20%. Existing-home sales for October declined 14.6% from prior-year levels to 3.79 million homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. We expect new-home sales for October to rise to 700,000 (SAAR) from 577,000 a year earlier, but decline from 759,000 in September. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for September will be released on November 28. With inventories tight and unemployment low, we expect home prices to remain elevated. The Zillow Home Value Index was up 1.1% YOY in September and up 1.8% in October. In this tumultuous housing market, Argus recommends Lennar, D.R. Horton, and Toll Brothers -- companies with solid financial strength that are adapting to market conditions.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Linde Plc. (LIN); Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD); Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD); Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VRTX) and the Focus List deletions are Adobe Inc (ADBE); Albemarle Corp. (ALB); Catalent Inc. (CTLT); Intel Corp. (INTC).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stubborn Inflation, Sturdy Consumers: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

August has been rough for stocks. The markets are down from their highs, although the year overall has been upbeat for stocks -- especially compared to a dismal 2022. The continued stress on the economy from higher interest rates, and questions about whether the Federal Reserve is done raising them, have weighed on valuations. Most economists are not convinced that the recession question has been answered. While there are strengths in the economy -- like the labor market and consumer spending -- inflation indicators inched up last month. The uncertain environment has impacted small-caps, mid-caps, large-caps, and even mega-caps. There is a wide range in data that shows how sectors are weathering this climate, with Communication Services up nearly 40% year-to-date but Consumer Staples down 2% for the same time period. In our opinion, some solid companies with strong financials have been oversold. For our list this week, we identified 10 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at attractive valuations (more than 20% below their 52-week highs). They are listed according to company size, with the largest first.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Hot July: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Federal Reserve's interest-rate campaign halted growth in the residential and manufacturing sectors, and the sky-high dollar is proving a challenge for exports. But government spending -- an important segment of the economy -- is stepping up to help the consumer sector generate GDP growth. Over the past decade, government spending has accounted for 15%-19% of overall GDP. Some of the lower rates were during the 2010s, when Congress imposed a sequestration program in exchange for an increase in the debt ceiling in 2011. Of course, spending picked up during the pandemic, as bipartisan programs flooded the economy with $4.6 trillion (according to the Government Accountability Office). We calculate that government spending, on average, has increased at a 1.7% annualized rate over the past four years. Of the three GDP components that comprise government spending, the biggest driver has been nondefense spending, which on average has risen at an 8% rate (distorted by the pandemic, of course). Defense spending has grown at a rate below 1%, though we note a sharp acceleration to 4%-5% growth since Russia invaded Ukraine. Looking ahead, Washington has just been through another debt-cap debate, and excess growth may be limited in the quarters ahead. Still, the government remains committed to the Biden infrastructure plan as well as the Chips & Science Act -- and we anticipate that government spending will continue contributing to overall GDP growth.

After the Fed Finishes

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q23. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as FedEx Inc. and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were little changed on Wednesday morning as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate announcement and follow-up comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Employment data was strong. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 296,000 jobs in April, up from 142,000 in March and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 148,000. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $2031 per ounce.

The first-quarter EPS season is here, with some of the major financials starting to report Thursday night. In addition to that excitement, we have a couple of Federal Reserve presidents speaking on Tuesday; March CPI on Wednesday; a few more Fed speakers and March PPI on Thursday; and March Retail Sales on Friday. Remember one thing: the most-important market tell is the reaction to earnings, economic data, and Fed speakers -- not the actual numbers or the conversation.

In this edition, semiconductor chips are simultaneously in shortage and in surplus; the European banking system will be fine; technology fights back against financial criminals; and Barry Callebaut, Fineos, and Domino's Pizza.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

In 1Q23, stocks continued to recover from the bear-market lows of 2022, with the S&P 500 rising 7% for the quarter. Performance was led by last year's laggard sectors, including Communication Services and Technology. Last year's top-performing sector, Energy, was the worst in 1Q23. Financial Services, including banks, were not far ahead. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage rose 4% in the quarter; the median stock advanced 2%. The average BUY-rated stock rose 5.4% and the average HOLD-rated stock gained 3.4%. Recently, we raised our sector rating on Technology to Over-Weight, and expect outperformance into 2Q -- especially if interest rates head lower. We also raised our rating on Financial Services, and the bottom five stocks in our list point to potential value opportunities.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning ahead of the Fed's policy statement, as investors weighed more 4Q earnings reports and new labor market data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 106,000 jobs in January, down from a revised 253,000 in December and well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 178,000. On the earnings front, AMD rose more than 7% after the company posted strong 4Q results, helped by sales of data center chips, and pointed to a strong second half in 2023. Stryker shares also rose strongly following above-consensus 4Q sales and earnings and positive 2023 guidance. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell 1% to $78 per barrel, while gold traded near $1945 per ounce.

One silver lining of a down market is that stocks become more affordable. During the very tough 2022 for almost all equities, the Technology sector was one of the hardest hit groups. Many Tech stocks, which are traditionally growth stocks, now offer both growth and value characteristics. When stock values pull back, especially far back, it usually is not a good time for investors to retreat. Rather, we advise that shareholders look for companies with strong managements, desirable products or services, and solid track records. For this week's list, we did exactly that in beaten-down Technology. We used the Argus Research Screening Tool and applied the following criteria: the stocks must be in the Technology sector; must be rated BUY at Argus; must carry an Argus Financial Strength rating of Medium-High or High; and must trade at least 30% below their 52-week high. Here are the top 10 results, suggesting attractive valuations.

October, as it has been many times in the past, was a wild month -- and at least a short-term bear killer. The month started out great and then the major indices fell off a small cliff and declined to new bear-market lows. But stocks had an amazing bullish reversal on October 13 and have been grinding nicely higher ever since. While it's a start, we are a long way from putting the bear fully into hibernation, despite the calendar's turn toward colder weather.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors awaited the September CPI report and 3Q earnings from major banks later this week. The International Monetary Fund cut its economic growth forecasts for 2023, citing the impact of the war in Ukraine, inflation, and rising interest rates. The IMF now expects global GDP to rise 2.7% next year, down from its July forecast of 2.9%. It maintained its 2022 growth forecast of 3.2%. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $90 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1677 per ounce.

In this edition, Vocera Acquisition a Boon for Stryker's Moat, Salty Sentiment Doesn't Portend Rocky Seas for Norwegian, Rising Rates Are a Positive for Life Insurers Like Prudential, and AMD, Coupa Software, and Conagra Brands

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from AMD, Starbucks, and CVS along with new U.S. service sector data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its nonmanufacturing index rose to 56.7 in July, up from 55.3 in June and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 53.5. The reading marked the first increase after three straight monthly declines. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.8%. Crude oil fell 2% to $92 per barrel, while gold fell $19 to $1771 per ounce.

Stocks plunged on Thursday, more than wiping out their gains in Wednesday's rally, as investors reassessed the impact of rising interest rates and the Fed's ability to control inflation. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 200,000 for the week ended April 30, up from 181,000 a week earlier and above the consensus estimate. The data came ahead of the government's April employment report on Friday morning. The Reuters consensus calls for 391,000 new payroll jobs after a gain of 431,000 in March. The Dow fell 3.12%, the S&P 3.56%, and the Nasdaq 4.99%. Crude oil traded near $108 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1878 per ounce.

During the current rally, we have seen improvement in market breadth indicators -- although some remain bearish while others are only neutral. In the S&P 500, 62% of stocks are above their 50-day average (all breadth data as of the 3/25 close) from a February low of 24%, while 53% are above their 200-day, up from a recent low of 36% (which was the weakest level since June 2020). Generally, large market declines happen when this measure falls and stays below 45%, so we would like to see more improvement for the average stock in the S&P 500.

January Jitters: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Stocks reversed their decline on Tuesday morning as investors weighed testimony by Fed Chair Powell before the Senate. According to Mr. Powell, the Fed will raise rates to curb prices if it needs to. The 10-year Treasury yields held stable at 1.76%. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $81 per barrel, while gold rose $17 to $1816 per ounce.

Explosive growth in mobile and fixed-line traffic is driving demand for robust data centers that are enabled for artificial intelligence (AI) and can manage rising and increasingly-complex traffic flow. Two-thirds of the world will have internet access by 2023, while the number of connected devices is expected to grow to three-times the global population. IoT (machine to machine or M2M) connections are expected to grow at a 30% CAGR. Security is a top need, as "denial of service" attacks are set to double by 2023. To handle the challenges of managing, storing, and securing data amid this explosive traffic growth, data centers will need to harness the power of artificial intelligence. AI enhances data center capabilities though the power of machine learning, inference, and deep learning, all in an application-accelerated environment. The AI data center also makes use of non-traditional and emerging technologies that provide more computing power than traditional CPU-based architectures. These include GPU Compute from NVidia and Tensor cores from Google/Alphabet. As of mid-year 2021, about 600 hyperscale data centers were in operation around the world, up from about 500 at year-end 2019 and double the number from five years ago. The bulk of data center construction is by hyperscale providers including AWS from Amazon.com, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud from Alphabet, as well as with Chinese companies including Baidu and Alibaba. Co-location companies are another major data center driver, including Equinix and Digital Realty Trust. International Business Machines is providing hybrid cloud services that bridge public and private clouds. Other data center suppliers include semiconductor companies Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Intel, and Advanced Micro Devices. Stocks on the Argus Research BUY list that are in position to benefit include the following.

The market is stumbling like a reveler exiting a company holiday party (remember those from pre-COVID times?). In the final full trading week of 2021, the S&P 500 slipped 1.94%; the Dow Industrials dropped 1.68%; and the Nasdaq crashed 2.95%. Predictably, growth stocks in the Nasdaq were hit hardest during a week in which the Fed doubled down on its QE taper and laid out its rate-hike timeline for 2022.

We pointed out last week that, despite day-to-day stumbles in stocks, market breadth is rebuilding quietly. Indeed, some four-fifths of stocks are now trading above their 200-day trendlines. Last week also saw a continuation of the trend whereby cyclical rotation alternates with re-rotation back into growth names. The DJIA slipped 1.38% last week and the S&P 500 edged up 0.32%, while the growth-oriented Nasdaq Composite rose a sharp 1.24%.

What happened to the September sell-off? A month ago, the S&P 500 was in the process of falling off all-time highs (ATHs) set early in September. From the ATH of 4,537 on 9/2/21, the '500' fell to the 4,350s on 9/21/21; staged what would be a failed rally to just under 4,450 on 9/24/21; and then made twin lows right around 4,300 on 9/30/21 and 10/4/21.

The week before Labor Day has a reputation for being a sleepy time on Wall Street, as investors get away for one last blast of summer. Trading volumes typically thins, which can have the counter-intuitive impact of causing swoops and dives.